I feel Obama will win the 2012 Presidential Election.
Here are the reasons why:
1. Bad Economy: But is Obama totally to blame?
The answer is NO. Obama, to a minor extent can be held responsible for not being able to turn the economy around but the recession is due to decades of bad government policy. Expecting Obama or anyone to turn the economy around in 4 years is too unrealistic an expectation. People also have come to the realization that chronic unemployment could be here to stay for a very long time and a turn-around will be mediocre at best.
2. Successful stabilization of banks, financial institutions and auto companies
Many people advocated letting banks and automotive companies slide into oblivion. Allowing this to happen would have had a cascade effect on the economy since hundreds or employees, businesses, suppliers depend on such organizations.
The gap left by failed companies/organization is never immediately filled by competitors and especially if even competitors are in the same boat of problems.
Approximately 70% of the bailout money has been paid back. So in hindsight, neither Bush nor Obama were wrong in allowing the Treasury to step in to stabilize these organizations.
3. Bin Laden is no more
OBL met his fate under the Obama administration. People may say credit should be given to GWB but the bottomline is that Obama was in office while this happened. He takes the credit.
4. Rollback of tax cuts for the rich
The poor in America do not pay taxes. The rich have the ability to evade taxes. Companies have methods to evade taxes with several Fortune 500 companies paying zero federal income tax. So the middle class are the only ones paying their tax bills regularly. And the middle-class feels cheated. The GOP should have supported rolling back taxes for the rich to pre-Bush levels. The Clinton years had huge economic growth rates. So the argument that taxing the rich will result in an economic slow down does not apply.
5. The War in Iraq is over
Obama has pulled out of Iraq. Yes, we are still paying for “consultants” in Iraq but that’s to be expected when you attack a country for dubious reasons. There is a certain amount of financial and moral responsibility that is required towards ensuring that there is stability in a country where stability has been destroyed.
6. Pull out date for war in Afghanistan
I am not so sure that setting a date for getting out of Afghanistan is a good idea especially since the Taliban has not been defeated. But I think the American people have had enough. So any kind of pullout is fine even if its not the most elegant.
7. Equal rights for gays
President Obama’s support for gays is admirable. Equal rights for gays is inevitable and the religious bigots in this country should realize this. I think this decision gets Obama a good chunk of independent votes.
8. Success in Libya with an economical strategy
Unlike Bush’s foray into Iraq to find WMDs, this effort by proxy, yielded splendid results for the administration. I personally do not support any kind of war unless its for defensive reasons but I do appreciate a President who values American life and treasure and who does not squander it on useless wars.
This is a huge initiative. Far more than my understanding and I do not claim to know the outcome like a lot of experts on TV. But what I do know is the American healthcare system is broken. Its pathetic the way people like Paul Ryan and Glenn Beck and the entire GOP vilified the healthcare initiative. There are about 50 million people in this country without health insurance. If you are sick or old try getting health insurance. Its next to impossible. The GOP never once tried to fix healthcare.
The GOP cemented their position as being anti-middle class by being against Obama’s healthcare plan. Healthcare related expense is the number 1 reason today for bankruptcies in America.
10. People are sick of war
Romney and McCain and other GOP stars keep hinting towards military action and a tough stance on Iran that is wholly unnecessary. People are sick of useless wars that bring nothing but huge recurring bills for the tax-payer. I am sure there are millions like me who do not want another war on the financial ledger of the country. I like to steer clear of the GOP with their “scorched earth” policy. While Bush is long-gone the Bush doctrine of preemptive war is stuck like “chewing gum” on the GOP party. It will take some time to erase the Bush legacy from the GOP.
11. Obama created a positive image for the U.S. globally where Bush wrecked the national image
Obama is well liked globally. In contrast, Bush created an extremely negative image for the U.S.A. and Americans in general that may take Obama and several more “nicer/kinder” presidents to undo.
12. Obama is more like the common man as compared to Romney
Obama is more like the common American. Mitt Romney with his unreachable tax-returns is too off-the-radar for most Americans.
13. Romney is a Mormon and not exactly the Republican ideal
I am not an expert on the Republican right-wing but Mitt Romney is not their ideal candidate. This is the reason he lost to McCain in his last presidential attempt. He is more Democrat than Republican if you look at his track record while in public office.
14. Paul Ryan’s perception as an extremist
The Paul Ryan budget plan has been discussed over and over in the media. And it scares seniors. The general perception is that the Paul Ryan plan is too draconian and the pain will be extreme for several segments of the population. Seniors don’t want to deal with any major changes to their entitlements or Medicare.
It does not matter that Paul Ryan is running for VP. People will still associate his policies with Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney should have tried to get a more maintstream Republican like Chris Christie or Tim Pawlenty to run with him.
15. The GOP alienates huge groups of people such as Latinos and African Americans
The GOP base has a lot of right-wing weirdos. And they scare a lot of people. We have a two party system for the most part so there’s nowhere to go except towards the DNP. With the unfair treatment in Iowa of Ron Paul the GOP has angered many Ron Paul supporters. While I am not a Ron Paul supporter as I simply do not believe in his Laissez Faire policies, I have a huge amount of respect for the man for his unwavering stance on most subjects however unpopular they may be. There is a lot to admire in him.
16. Republican Contradictions
The GOP is pro-gun. pro-war. pro-life (anti-abortion).
Somehow the three ideas do not work together for obvious reasons.
17. Environmental Credentials
Obama’s green credential are a lot better than the GOPs. His new 54.5 mpg. standard for 2025 is a step in the right direction. More and more people now agree that global warming is a man-made phenomenon and a cause for great alarm.
These are a few reasons that I think will lead to an Obama victory.